So it is under way, election 2011, and today is the first full day of electioneering.

I thought it would be amusing - well it will amuse me, anyway - to put down here what I think the outcome will be, and why, and see how it will compare with the result.

As things stand it is almost universally agreed amongst all pundits, pollsters and the public that Fianna Fail is going to auto destruct and be decimated.

The same pundits and pollsters seem equally agreed that Fine Gael is going to do very well, Labour also and that a Fine Gael led coalition with Labour, enjoying a substantial majority, is a foregone conclusion.

I'm not so sure.

My view is this.

I don't believe that Fianna Fail will do as badly as is being predicted.
They will certainly loose most, or all, of the floating vote that decide elections and will not be returned to power, not even as a minor coalition partner.
But there is good evidence to suggest that the core FF vote, especially the middle-aged and elderly will, despite what they may be saying now, return to the fold on polling day.
Where else would the go? - However bad things are and, even if they think 'their own' have failed them. they certainly won’t move to the 'old enemy'.

Nor do I think that Fine Gael will do as well as the soothsayers foretell.
I suggest that many of us who want a change of government will resile from giving Fine Gael a clear run as, frankly, they have been weak and indecisive in opposition.
It was not until Michael Noonan replaced Richard Bruton, after the latter's ill-timed coup attempt, that they began to sound competent to address the nation's woes.
But I suspect that Noonan's interventions will prove to have been too little too late and that the 'Enda Kenny factor' will continue to feed the doubt.

As for Labour, I estimate that they will poll significantly worse than is being suggested.
I suspect that a sizeable chunk of voters whom they believe to be their supporters, especially younger people will, in the event, vote for Sinn Fein.

And I predict that Sinn Fein will do far better than their current polling-figures suggest.
They will, in my view, likely pick up, as I have suggested, not only a useful slice of the young Labour vote but also the bulk of the angry and disaffected Fianna Fail voters, again, particularly the younger ones.

There is a further factor that I think may influence the outcome. - I predict that the turnout will be higher than in recent general elections and that this increase will come from, once again, younger voters who have been politicised by the disastrous change in their circumstances since the economy collapsed.

I suspect also that very many voters will select, and vote for, a candidate they have judged on, his or her, performance or potential, rather than because of the party to which they belong.

This is surely how I will vote and it will likely have me voting for members of parties I abhor or, at the least, about which I have grave doubts.

And to behave thus makes a perverse sense to me. - I have long held the view that what we need, at this moment in time, is a government for 'national recovery' made up from the most competent representatives irrespective of their party allegiances, loyalties or dogmas.

But, sadly, I do not think that is what we will elect on 25 February.

Taking the factors outlined above together, I suggest that the result of this election is far less predictable, when assessed by the received wisdoms and yardsticks by which the outcomes of past elections have been determined, than is being assumed.

I fear that we may elect a dail made up of such disparate elements that it could herald a period of political instability at the very moment that we most urgently require a steadfast government begat of wisdom and courage.

And if this foreboding transpires, I further fear that we may be faced with a series of elections, in quick succession, before stable government is achieved - and god knows what condition the country will be in by then.

Footnote:

We escaped, mercifully, having to decide whether or not to vote for a motley assembly of pundits, intellectuals and members of the commentariat who nearly decided that they would seek election to sort matters out.
Good decision boys - stick to your own trade - I say.
For why? Something along the lines of poachers and game-keepers, I guess which, when I come to think of it, probably means that I should delete all above and go quietly back down to the workshop!
Especially, (since I was unable to post this entry - see 'The line was down'..........) as further indicators have emerged that, so far, confound my views and expectations: Fine Gael have continued to make gains and and it is now being suggested that they may even be in a position to form a single party government!

But we shall see what we shall see.......................